Bowl Blog For 11/9

We’re starting this week on a positive note.  I have the following teams as being newly bowl eligible*:

Central Michigan
Cincinnati
Florida Atlantic
Kansas State
Louisiana Lafayette
Liberty
Marshall
Notre Dame
Oklahoma St
Pittsburgh
Texas A&M
Toledo
Tulane
Virginia
Western Michigan

Note, after two weeks of harping on Notre Dame they are OFFICIALLY bowl eligible after last week and I can stop talking about the statistically insignificant chance that Notre Dame could lose every game from here out. 

That puts my count of bowl eligible teams at 45:

	TeamName
1	Air Force
2	Alabama
3	App State
4	Auburn
5	Baylor
6	Boise State
7	Central FL
8	Central Mich
9	Cincinnati
10	Clemson
11	Fla Atlantic
12	Florida
13	Georgia
14	Georgia State
15	Indiana
16	Iowa
17	Kansas St
18	LA Lafayette
19	LA Tech
20	Liberty
21	LSU
22	Marshall
23	Memphis
24	Michigan
25	Minnesota
26	Navy
27	Notre Dame
28	Ohio State
29	Oklahoma
30	Oklahoma St
31	Oregon
32	Penn State
33	Pittsburgh
34	S Methodist
35	San Diego St
36	Texas A&M
37	Toledo
38	Tulane
39	UAB
40	Utah
41	Virginia
42	W Michigan
43	Wake Forest
44	Wisconsin
45	Wyoming

45 eligible for 79 spots. 

On the other end, Old Dominion and UMass join the ranks of those with absolute zero chance for bowl eligibility.

Team	Wins	Losses	Bowl % Chance
Akron	0	9	0
New Mexico State	0	8	0
Old Dominion	1	8	0
Rice	0	9	0
UMass	1	8	0

The stand-by group, those whose only chance is to win out and hope not enough teams become bowl eligible, looks like this, this week, only South Alabama was able to cling to this tiny chance, everyone else is new this week:

Team	Wins	Losses
Arkansas	2	7
UConn	2	7
New Mexico	2	7
Northwestern	1	7
Rutgers	2	7
South Alabama	1	7
Tulsa	2	7
UTEP	1	7
UNLV	2	7

Your bubble teams are now:

Team	Wins	Losses	Bowl % Chance
Army	3	6	51.9
Bowling Green	3	6	0.1
Colorado	3	6	0.3
East Carolina	3	6	1.2
Georgia Tech	2	6	0.1
Houston	3	6	9.9
Kansas	3	6	0.1
Kent State	3	6	7.1
Maryland	3	6	< 0.1
Middle Tennessee	3	6	30
Mississippi	3	6	2.3

Only Bowling Green and Purdue managed to survive the bubble and keep their hopes alive for another week, everyone else is new here, don’t get too comfortable guys. 

The following teams have only one more slip up before falling to the stand by group. 

Team	Wins	Losses	Bowl % Chance
Ohio	4	5	89.5
North Carolina	4	5	80.7
Mississippi State	4	5	74.9
Ball State	4	5	73.1
Eastern Michigan	4	5	68.6
Charlotte	4	5	61.2
North Texas	4	5	59.3
Tennessee	4	5	53.9
Florida State	4	5	51.8
San Jose State	4	5	30.4
South Carolina	4	5	23.5
UCLA	4	5	20.1
Nebraska	4	5	17
Texas Tech	3	5	13.1
Troy	3	5	9.8
LA Monroe	3	5	7.7
Colorado State	4	5	7.5
West Virginia	3	5	4.1
Arizona	4	5	2.9
UTSA	3	5	1.2

High numbers here are surprising to me. If you follow my twitter (@Smitty818) I tweeted out Ohio’s chances prior to last nights game. Ohio lost, yet their chance only fell about 7%.

The Middle:

These teams are a couple of games away from either bowl eligibility or elimination.

Team	Wins	Losses	Bowl % Chance
BYU	4	4	99.7
Michigan State	4	4	97.9
Kentucky	4	4	95.6
Washington State	4	4	90.5
Fresno State	4	4	87
TCU	4	4	80.1
Utah State	4	4	77.3
Duke	4	4	68.9
Stanford	4	4	59.6
Coastal Carolina	4	4	54.8
NC State	4	4	40.5
California	4	4	39.1
South Florida	4	4	25.5
Oregon St	4	4	16.6

 Surprised to see Wazzoo has fallen this far down.

On the brink:

Only need one more win for these teams to claim bowl eligibility. Which reminds me, I did a little extra leg work and the teams needing 7 wins to become bowl eligible are Hawaii, because they play an extra game and Army, East Carolina, Liberty and Virginia Tech for playing two 1-AA teams. I could go up and reconcile that, but the week is short my friends, especially this time of year when games for the week start on Tuesday and happen just about every day of the week. 

TeamName	Wins	Losses	Bowl Eligible %
Miami (OH)	5	4	99.9
Buffalo	5	4	99.3
Iowa State	5	3	99
Washington	5	4	98.6
S Mississippi	5	3	98.3
Miami (FL)	5	4	98.2
Hawaii	5	4	97.9
Temple	5	3	97.8
Texas	5	3	97.6
Arkansas St	5	4	97.3
GA Southern	5	3	97
USC	5	4	95.9
Arizona St	5	3	93.6
Louisville	5	3	90.9
Virginia Tech	5	3	88.1
Western Kentucky	5	4	80.6
Illinois	5	4	68.5
Boston College	5	4	66.8
Nevada	5	4	54.9
FIU	5	4	37
Missouri**	5	3	0

No more 100% teams that still technically have a chance of getting knocked out like Notre Dame used to be. Virginia Tech still has a decent chance, even though they have to get to seven wins to be bowl eligible.

For the third week of doing this, I was looking forward to being able to graph percentages now that each team has three data points, but without making the chart unbelievably huge with 130 teams the X-axis would be completely indiscernible. Perhaps if I broke it down by conference, but like I mentioned earlier, time is short. Still, here is the list to see the ups and downs. I’m open to graphing suggestions. 

	10/21/2019	10/28/2019	11/4/2019
Air Force	100	100	100
Akron	0	0	0
Alabama	100	100	100
Appalachian State	100	100	100
Arizona	44.3	28.5	2.9
Arizona State	96.1	92.7	93.6
Arkansas	0.1	0.1	0
Arkansas State	82.4	89.8	97.3
Army	91.7	54.6	51.9
Auburn	100	100	100
Ball State	92.6	81.9	73.1
Baylor	100	100	100
Boise State	100	100	100
Boston College	31	26.4	66.8
Bowling Green	0.4	0.1	0.1
Buffalo	72.5	87.9	99.3
BYU	91.1	93.2	99.7
Cal	44.9	34.1	39.1
Central Michigan	85.6	73	100
Charlotte	16.8	32.8	61.2
Cincinnati	100	100	100
Clemson	100	100	100
Coastal Carolina	37.2	41.1	54.8
Colorado	7.4	3.9	0.3
Colorado St	0.7	4.5	7.5
Duke	72.4	68.4	68.9
East Carolina	19.8	2.1	1.2
Eastern Michigan	86.2	83.6	68.6
FAU	98.7	99.9	100
FIU	66.8	36.3	37
Florida	100	100	100
Florida St	66.8	84.1	51.8
Fresno St	91.4	65.1	87
Georgia	100	100	100
Georgia Southern	62.8	74.6	97
Georgia State	96.9	100	100
Georgia Tech	1.3	1.5	0.1
Hawaii	97	99	97.9
Houston	32.8	15.5	9.9
Illinois	18.2	61.2	68.5
Indiana	95.3	100	100
Iowa	99.7	100	100
Iowa State	99.8	98.9	99
Kansas	0.5	0.9	0.1
Kansas St	84.7	99	100
Kent State	35.6	15.2	7.1
Kentucky	78.9	95.7	95.6
Liberty	99.6	99.2	100
Louisville	62.1	88.1	90.9
Louisiana Lafayette	100	100	100
Louisiana Monroe	30	23.6	7.7
Louisiana Tech	100	100	100
LSU	100	100	100
Marshall	93.3	98.6	100
Maryland	12.6	1.5	0
Memphis	100	100	100
Miami (FL)	61.9	82.9	98.2
Miami (OH)	66	95.4	99.9
Michigan	97.7	100	100
Michigan State	98.6	97.7	97.9
Middle Tennessee	34.6	65.8	30
Minnesota	100	100	100
Mississippi	3.5	3.2	2.3
Mississippi State	63.7	56.1	74.9
Missouri	0	0	0
Navy	99.9	100	100
NC State	61.9	58.4	40.5
Nebraska	49.6	39	17
Nevada	40.4	33.5	54.9
New Mexico	0.2	0	0
North Carolina	76	89.5	80.7
North Illinois	28.7	39.7	9.5
North Mex State	0	0	0
North Texas	74.7	55.7	59.3
Northwestern	11.5	2.7	0
Notre Dame	100	100	100
Ohio	75.7	96.5	89.5
Ohio State	100	100	100
Oklahoma	100	100	100
Oklahoma State	86.8	99.1	100
Old Dominion	0.4	0	0
Oregon	100	100	100
Oregon State	5.2	6	16.6
Penn State	100	100	100
Pittsburgh	98.6	97.8	100
Purdue	12.7	0.4	0.5
Rice	0	0	0
Rutgers	0	0	0
San Diego State	100	100	100
San Jose State	8	31.1	30.4
SMU	100	100	100
South Alabama	0	0	0
South Carolina	59.1	19.3	23.5
Southern Mississippi	93.2	98.3	98.3
Stanford	44.8	58.5	59.6
Syracuse	39	24.1	2.5
TCU	64.7	85.9	80.1
Temple	99.2	97.1	97.8
Tennessee	17.1	46	53.9
Texas	99	97.7	97.6
Texas A&M	93.2	99.9	100
Texas State	3.9	0.9	0.4
Texas Tech	44.8	16	13.1
Toledo	86.4	94.7	100
Troy	52.1	26	9.8
Tulane	96.9	95.8	100
Tulsa	3.2	1.1	0
UAB	100	100	100
UCF	100	100	100
UCLA	6.8	12.8	20.1
UConn	0	0	0
UMass	0	0	0
UNLV	11.4	4.5	0
USC	96.3	98.5	95.9
USF	9.9	23.1	25.5
Utah	100	100	100
Utah State	94.6	91.6	77.3
UTEP	0.1	0	0
UTSA	1.4	1.2	1.2
Virginia Tech	83.6	84	88.1
Vanderbilt	0.9	0.7	0.1
Virginia	100	99.9	100
Wake Forest	100	100	100
Wash State	89.2	90.9	90.5
Washington	99.5	99.2	98.6
West Virginia	7.8	5.2	4.1
Western Kentucky	91.7	83.3	80.6
Western Michigan	91.9	93	100
Wisconsin	100	100	100
Wyoming	98.8	100	100

Last week I wanted to mention that I wanted to include a list of games with the most bowl eligibility at stake, but I couldn’t settle on a set of parameters to measure, give weight and rank. Again, open to suggestions.  

I’m deviating from bowls for this last bit of information I found interesting. In addition to providing bowl likelihood, data team https://www.teamrankings.com/ also calculates percent chance to go undefeated. Both Clemson and Ohio State are about 75% which is amazing all things considered. Here is the full list:

Team	Chance of Going Undefeated
Clemson	85.5
Ohio State	76.3
Alabama	45.8
LSU	22.5
Penn State	9.2
Baylor	6.2
Minnesota	1.5

Of the 71 teams still vying for Bowl Eligibility (excluding the stand-bys), Clemson has a better chance of going undefeated than 50 teams do of just making a bowl game. The drop off for Ohio State is just down four teams from that at 46 teams. 

Another thing to watch is LSU plays Alabama and Minnesota plays Penn State this weekend, so this list is guaranteed to be shorter when the dust settles on Saturday. 

Thanks for reading and thanks as always to https://www.teamrankings.com for hooking me up with data. 


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* After I wrote this but before I released it Temple also became bowl eligible. 
** What week would be complete without mentioning that Missouri* was naughty and doesn’t get to go to a bowl no matter what.